Why Employment Figures Aren’t Up to the Job in 2025 – The Shocking Truth Behind the Numbers

 

 Why Employment Figures Aren’t Up to the Job in 2025 – The Shocking Truth Behind the Numbers

Meta Description: Employment numbers in Scotland and the UK are under scrutiny. Discover why job data is becoming unreliable and how it affects policy, economy, and the people behind the numbers.

Labels: UK Employment 2025, Scottish Economy, Labour Market Crisis, ONS Statistics, Government Policy 2025, Job Figures Truth, Economic Inactivity


Introduction: What Do the Job Numbers Really Say?

Every month, economists, news anchors, and politicians eagerly discuss fresh employment data. It seems simple: more jobs = stronger economy, right? Not anymore.

In 2025, the once-trusted job figures are no longer telling the whole story. In fact, employment data in Scotland and across the UK is facing a credibility crisis.

Although unemployment rates appear to be falling in Scotland while rising elsewhere, many experts argue that these numbers are flawed, vague, and in some cases, just plain wrong. So, what’s going on?

Let’s dig deep into why employment figures are failing us—and what that means for the public, policymakers, and anyone trying to understand the real health of the economy.


1. The Numbers Look Good—But Can We Trust Them?

According to the most recent statistics, Scotland’s unemployment rate fell to 3.7%, while the UK-wide average climbed to 4.7%.

Sounds like a win for Scotland, right?

Hold on. Even the organizations publishing this data admit it’s not that clear-cut. In fact, the Scottish figures come with a margin of error of 0.7%, meaning the true unemployment rate could lie anywhere between 3.0% and 4.4%. That’s a huge swing.

Meanwhile, the UK figures have a smaller margin of error, making them more dependable. But that also means Scotland’s lower number might not actually be lower at all.

It gets worse: these figures no longer carry the official seal of National Statistics, signaling major concerns about their reliability.


2. Payroll Data: A More Honest Snapshot

To get a clearer picture, many analysts now turn to payroll data from HM Revenue & Customs (HMRC).

Why? Because it’s based on real tax records. Employers report monthly what they pay their staff—no surveys, no guesswork.

Here’s what HMRC tells us:

  • Over 2.5 million Scots had payroll jobs in June 2025

  • That’s a decline of 16,000 jobs since June 2024

This kind of data is more consistent and gives a factual look at employment trends, unlike uncertain survey results.

Still, it only shows those in formal employment—not the self-employed, gig workers, or freelancers.


3. The Claimant Count: Only Part of the Story

Another figure often quoted is the claimant count—how many people are receiving unemployment benefits.

In June 2025, 107,200 people in Scotland were on job-seeking benefits. That’s:

  • Up by 1,800 from May

  • Down by 1,300 from June 2024

However, this count is limited. Many unemployed individuals don’t qualify for benefits, or choose not to claim them. So while the number is useful, it’s not a full picture of unemployment.


4. Wages Are Rising—But Not Equally

Pay is another angle that helps understand the job market.

According to HMRC:

  • Median employee pay in June 2025 rose by 5.4%

  • The average monthly salary reached £2,546

  • UK-wide, the increase was 5.6%

Adjusting for inflation at 3.6%, that means real earnings rose by 1.8%.

But again, this doesn’t include self-employed workers, and their income data is delayed by up to 20 months due to tax reporting timelines.

So while it seems like people are earning more, the full story is incomplete.


5. Survey Trouble: Why the Labour Force Data Is Failing

The Labour Force Survey (LFS) was once a reliable cornerstone for employment stats. Not anymore.

Since the pandemic, response rates have plummeted. Many people—especially younger ones—no longer answer phone calls or emails asking about their jobs and income.

At its worst point, the LFS was down to 44,000 responses every three months, compared to 84,000 before the pandemic.

To make matters worse, the ONS (Office for National Statistics) tried to shift from in-person interviews to online surveys—and it backfired badly. The transition was chaotic, and the data quality dropped sharply.

Even now, after some recovery (70,000 responses), the figures are still not certified as trustworthy.


6. The Dangerous Margin for Error

The biggest problem with unreliable stats is how misleading they can be.

Example:

  • The estimated employment rise in Scotland between March and May 2025 was +22,000

  • But the error margin is ±74,000!

This means employment might have increased—or fallen by over 50,000.

For policymakers who need accurate data to design programs or adjust budgets, this level of uncertainty is a massive red flag.


7. The Rise of Economic Inactivity

Perhaps even more concerning is the number of people who aren’t working and aren’t looking for work.

This group is classified as economically inactive—and includes:

  • People with long-term illness

  • Those who’ve given up job-seeking

  • Carers

  • Students

  • Retirees under pension age

In Scotland, 756,000 people are economically inactive, but again, the margin of error is up to ±68,000.

This trend has serious implications for the government. Rising benefit costs for health-related inactivity are creating budget strain. The government's attempt to reduce these payments backfired, resulting in a policy U-turn.


8. Even the Bank of England Is Struggling

The unreliability of employment data is not just a headache for journalists—it’s a nightmare for decision-makers.

The Bank of England’s chief economist even criticized the ONS, saying it's difficult to set interest rates without clear job data.

Employment affects everything:

  • Inflation

  • Interest rates

  • Economic growth

  • Welfare planning

So if the job stats are wrong, it’s like flying a plane with a broken radar.


9. ONS Under Fire: Leadership in Crisis

In 2025, the ONS faced heavy criticism for mismanaging the transition to new data collection methods.

An independent inquiry in April exposed:

  • Poor leadership

  • Unmanageable workloads

  • A toxic environment where staff couldn’t speak up

  • Declining output quality

As a result:

  • ONS chief Sir Ian Diamond resigned in May

  • ONS chair Sir Robert Chote also stepped down

The government is now looking to split leadership roles—one person for data reform, another for statistical integrity.


10. What’s Next? The Way Forward for Job Data

The ONS has now paused its full move to online data collection. For now, they are using:

  • One face-to-face interview

  • Followed by five online or phone interviews per household

It’s a compromise, but far from perfect. The truth is, it will take years to rebuild public trust and ensure accurate employment figures.

Until then, all we can do is treat job stats with caution, look at multiple data sources (like payroll and benefit claims), and push for greater transparency in how data is collected.


Conclusion: Don’t Believe Everything You Read About Jobs

On the surface, employment figures in Scotland and the UK paint a promising picture—but don’t be fooled.

Behind the headlines lie serious data problems, shifting survey methods, and a lack of consistency. In 2025, even the experts don’t fully trust the numbers.

If you’re an investor, policymaker, or even a regular citizen trying to understand the economy, the key takeaway is this:

Always question the numbers. Dive deeper. Look beyond the headline.

Because when it comes to job data in 2025, things aren’t just confusing—they're dangerously misleading.

Brotherly advice :

There is famous saying that your money does not make you rich rather your mindset makes you rich yes you heard it right if your mindset makes you rich then even if you have no money you are already rich and secondly stop judging yourself based upon people opinions people will say you are poor you have no money no car no home nothing and yes they will say you are broke poor

But if you believe only and only on yourself then you are rich but if you start believing on others and stop believing on yourself then yes you are truly a poor and broke guy and will live like this for your complete life poor and broke don t even know what to do in the life and you will spend rest of your life listening to  different opinions of the people and will never think about what your own self wants to do so stop listening to others start believing on yourself you will see a massive and a complete change in your life once you start listening to yourself 


If you found it helpful then don t forget to share it with your friends and family maybe they are also broke and want to change their life as well so you could share this with your friends and family 


if you want to know how a broke and poor man became millionaire just by selling old dusty books you could read out : 

https://www.mindsetmasteries.org/2025/07/how-man-sold-old-books-and-became.html

if you want to know what is the biggest mistake that most of the millionaire do without even noticing it then you could read out 

https://www.mindsetmasteries.org/2025/07/finance-and-investment-advice-dont.html

if you really want to start a business and you have no capital and no money at all then you could read out 

https://www.mindsetmasteries.org/2025/07/how-to-start-business-with-no-money-at.html

if you want the bundles of digital products consisting of two thousand + reels for youtube tiktok instagram facebook you can message me of DM me on instagram : https://www.instagram.com/mindsetmasteries.organization/


Thanks a lot and Don t forget to share it with your friends and family and take a good care of yourself and i will catch you in upcoming post till then


PEACE 


YOUR WELL WISHER 

SAAD UR REHMAN HEAD AND FOUNDER OF PAGE MINDSET MASTERY 


One year from now, your zero-investment journey might become your full-time income.

Comments